The improved outlook of US economy triggered a sharp price rebound yesterday in Shanghai nonferrous metals market, led by copper and zinc.

 

The most actively traded copper futures contracts for February delivery on Shanghai Futures Exchange, SHFE, surged 3.99 percent to the daily allowable limit to close at 57,070 yuan per ton. Nearly all zinc futures contracts on SHFE jumped to the daily allowable limits, with the most actively traded contract for delivery in February soaring 3.98 percent to end at 19,455 yuan per ton.

 

In the international futures markets, most contracts saw big increases in response to rising market expectations of further interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December, which could help stabilize the US financial market. Another interest rate cut could also further depress the US dollar which, in turn, could drive up commodity prices.

 

On London Metal Exchange, the three-month copper futures contracts rose 1.93 percent, the biggest one-day jump in the past two week, to $6,850 per ton, while the three-month zinc futures climbed 1.82 percent to $2,520 per ton.

 

Analysts say the any improvement on the financial front as a result of further interest cut would reduce traders’ concern about the possible slowdown of the US economy.

 

“The rising expectation about the further interest rate cut by Fed has boosted traders’ confidence about the US economy, which has been undermined by the fallout of sub-prime mortgage problems,” said Zhou Zhiqiang, an analyst at Great Wall Futures in Shanghai.

 

Despite continued weak performance in US housing market as indicated by the newly released figures of housing sales, traders were encouraged by the positive policy of the US central bank. Traders have largely shrugged off the rather gloomy latest housing statistics.

 

Figures released by the US National Association of Realtors, NAR, on Wednesday reported that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 1.2 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million units. The median price of a home sold last month declined to $207,800, a drop of 5.1 percent from a year ago, the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.

 

NAR blamed the October weakness on the fallout from a serious credit crunch that roiled financial markets in August.

 

“The further interest rate cut is expected to stimulate the investment and consumption, which will in turn help promote US economic growth,” said Li Jingyuan, an analyst at Haitong Futures in Shanghai.

 

(China Daily November 30, 2007)