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China PMI expands, signaling recovery
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China's manufacturing expanded for a second month as government stimulus spending stoked a fledgling recovery in the world's third-biggest economy.

The Purchasing Manager's Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.5 in April from 52.4 in March, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on Friday in Beijing in an e-mailed statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

Stronger Chinese demand is helping exporting nations across Asia, where South Korea reported on Friday a 9 percent gain in shipments in April from the previous month. Goldman Sachs Group Inc says the Chinese economy will grow 8.3 percent this year even as countries from the US to Japan are mired in recessions.

"The worst is already behind China," said Sun Mingchun, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc in Hong Kong. "Domestic strength should outweigh the tougher external environment."

In the manufacturing data, the output index rose to 57.4 from 56.9 in March, the new order index climbed to 56.6 from 54.6, and the export order index increased to 49.1 from 47.5.

The Chinese and South Korean numbers show "global demand is no longer in freefall", said David Cohen, an economist with Action Economics in Singapore.

"Maybe the global downturn is bottoming out - maybe the first quarter will prove to have been the worst."

South Korea's exports fell a less-than-estimated 19 percent from a year earlier after a 22 percent slide in March. Month-on-month, the nation's shipments have climbed since February.

Singapore's shipments to China jumped 29 percent in March from February, and those from Japan and South Korea also increased.

Nissan Motor Co and Hyundai Motor Co this month all forecast higher sales to China.

Signs that the Chinese economy is reviving because of the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package include a 30 percent increase in urban fixed-asset investment in March from a year earlier. New loans more than tripled to a record 4.58 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Growth in industrial output accelerated in March.

In Friday's numbers, the employment index climbed to 50.3 from 48.6 in March.

The overall manufacturing index has gained for five months after falling in November to the lowest since the data began in 2005.

The latest numbers show that "China's economy will continue to recover", Zhang Liqun, an economist at the State Council Development and Research Center, said in a statement released with the data.

While China's exports plummeted in the first quarter from a year earlier, including a record 25.7 percent plunge in February, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said last month that the pace of the decline was slowing.

Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-largest iron ore exporter, said on April 22 that sales will improve this quarter as China's stimulus measures, including spending on infrastructure projects, spur demand for the steelmaking material.

Manufacturing contracted for five straight months, from October through February, as demand for exports evaporated because of the global recession. China's economy grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since at least 1999.

(China Daily via agencies May 2, 2009)

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