Bush's Europe tour proved rather fruitful in terms of US interests so that the hearty laughter of senior US officials was reported by some media. Bush even said that the era of East-West confrontation had ended. The unbalanced position between US and Russia had been decided at the end of Cold War, or even earlier. During the ten-year post-Cold War era, Russia's international position had declined repeatedly because of its gloomy domestic situation. Thus, Russia had to stay in a defensive position under the aggressive approach of the US. The importance of Russia to the US had fallen to its lowest point at the time of the 2000 US presidential election as Bush vowed to reduce the scale of bilateral cooperation with Russia. Therefore, from the very first day taking office, Bush has been determined to put Russia aside by redefining the strategic framework of the US and Russia.

There were two aims for Bush's Europe tour: one to curb Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal, and the other to make Russia admit NATO and allow the West to include Eastern Europe. It is obvious that the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Weapons Reduction is in the interests of the US. Although both sides set the goal to destroy nuclear weapons on a large scale, the US can still be the strongest nuclear power as it still has many nuclear warheads along with powerful tactical nuclear weapons. The balance of strategic power between Russia and US is gone forever because Russia cannot compete with the US whether in terms of capital or technology.

In addition, Russia might move further towards Europe under the auspices of the new NATO-Russia Council. It cannot be easily forgotten how politicians hailed "a new era" five years ago, when the mechanism of 19+1 was established. Yet, Russia complained right after it joined the mechanism that it was not 19 plus 1, but 19 against 1. Looking at the new framework, it is not difficult to understand that Russia neither gains the right to participate in the central decision making powers of NATO. However, it is a victory for the US because Bush successfully established Russian's role of a small partner in the form of a treaty. Bush's election promise of creating a new strategic relationship with Russia came true. Although Russia is still against the eastward expansion of NATO, it no longer says that this threatens Russia's national interests.

Yet, Russia did gain some compensation from its alliance with NATO. It had been named as major or primary potential threat by US government in nearly every key strategic evaluation report since the end of the Cold War. But the US changed its tone late last year. According to a report of the US Department of Defense, Russia is no longer a major enemy since US-Russian relations are undergoing significant changes. Bush went a further step by saying with a broad smile while addressing students in Moscow on May 25 that Russia was a friend of the US. All this leads to one conclusion: that the American and European reevaluation of Russia helps Russia merge into Europe," strengthens the West's support for Russia both economically and politically, and provides time for Russian recovery. Perhaps, it is Putin himself who realizes the conventional wisdom of "only development matters:" Russia can enjoy more strategic benefits only after it grows strong. Today's surrender is for tomorrow's gain. However, Putin's calculations will mainly rest on how Russia develops.

"Chilly in the west, warmer in the east" is a headline used by the British magazine The Economists to describe Bush's Europe tour, which exactly reflects the sour grape mentality of Europe. Russia took three days of Bush's six-day Europe trip while Germany, France and Italy -- those old allies -- only shared a courtesy short stop each, making Europe feel it was being left out in the cold. As a matter of fact, Europe-US relations have not developed smoothly since Bush took office, for the Europeans cannot agree with Bush's "axis of evil." Besides, in their view, Bush did not do enough in reducing tensions in the Mideast conflict. But things are different this time. Europe would like to take a free ride in Bush's Europe visit. French President Jacques Chirac said excitedly that new accord of Russia and NATO buried the last heritage of the Cold War. Being the most direct victim of Russia-US confrontation over the past half century, Europe had always been worrying about becoming a battlefield between the two big powers. Before the Sept.11 attacks, Russia had been improving its relations with the US mainly through Europe. After Sept. 11, US-Russian relations changed dramatically, with the Russians dealing directly with the Americans. After all, Europe benefited a lot from Bush's Europe visit.

(Niu Xinchun, expert on US Affairs at Beijing International Politics Research Institute)

(Translated by Zheng Guihong for china.org.cn, June 13, 2002)