Despite seemingly bland ballot language, Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's referendum plan threatens to trigger heightened tension and even a crisis in cross-Straits relations, mainland analysts say.

Wu Nengyuan, director of the Institute of Modern Taiwan Studies under the Fujian Academy of Social Sciences, described the so-called "defensive referendum" as a virtual vote on reunification vs. independence with a sinister motive.

"Contrasting with Chen's creeping pro-independence moves in the past, the proposed referendum aimed at clearing the way for his splittist scheme will prove to be more risky and provocative," he told China Daily Sunday.

On Friday Chen announced the two-part content of the March 20 ballot, which coincides with "presidential" elections.

Voters will be asked whether the island should beef up its anti-missile defenses if the mainland refuses to withdraw missiles and renounce the threat of war against Taiwan.

The referendum also includes an option for Taiwan to open talks with the mainland.

"More radical separatist steps may ensue from the vote to drag cross-Straits situation into an uncontrolled state," Wu said.

A planned island-wide election itself is meant to fan anti-mainland sentiment among the Taiwanese public and challenge the bottom line of the Chinese mainland, he added.

"It can only propel the mainland to get fully prepared to crush any separatist activities of the island."

On Saturday, the planned referendum drew firm opposition from Beijing, which condemned it as "one-sided provocation" to peace and stability in bilateral ties.

Chen is "stubbornly promoting the so-called referendum which provokes confrontation between the people across the Straits and will also sabotage cross-Straits relations," the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council said in a written statement on Saturday.

It added the referendum "is a one-sided provocation to the stability and peace of the Taiwan Straits and a bid to prepare for Taiwan independence."

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kong Quan also said on Saturday that Chen's move, under the guise of promoting peace and democracy, has gone against the immediate interests of Taiwanese people and ignored objections from the international community.

He urged the United States to remain steadfast on its explicit opposition to Taipei's pro-independence moves.

On the island, the opposition parties still consider the proposed plebiscite unnecessary and illegal.

(China Daily January 19, 2004)