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Casting Doubt on the 1.3-Billionth Baby

On January 6 at 00:02, a boy weighing in at 3.7 kilograms and measuring 52 centimeters long was born at the Beijing Hospital of Gynecology and Obstetrics (BHGO). He was named China's 1.3 billionth citizen.

 

Zhang Weiqing, director of the National Family Planning Commission, presented the lucky boy with a certificate proclaiming his status on the same day.

 

Little Zhang Yichi, as he is now called, is the son of Lan Hui, 31, and Zhang Bin, 37.

 

"The 1.0 billionth, 1.1 billionth and 1.2 billionth citizens were all born in Beijing. So was the 1.3 billionth, which gives rise to doubt about it," said Lu Zhiyuan, an employee of a joint-venture company in Shanghai. "Why wasn't the 1.3 billionth baby born in Yunnan or Heilongjiang or Qinghai, or some other remote areas?"

 

Zhou Haibin, an associate researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences' Population and Development Institute, said the baby was selected as a symbolic representative. "The predicted arrival time for the 1.3 billionth was calculated on the basis of past birthrate," said Zhou. "It would not be that accurate."

 

The daily birthrate averaged about 20,800 in the 10-year-period since Baby No. 1.2 Billion arrived, putting the ETA for the 1.3 billionth citizen on January 6.

 

Sources from the BHGO said that only babies born naturally would be eligible for the honor; any delivered by Caesarean would be disqualified.

 

The selection of this particular hospital for the special baby's arrival was a matter of convenience: BHGO delivers as many as 20 little ones each day, so it was easy to do the calculation. Moreover, its staff and facilities are top-notch.

 

Zhou admitted that it is impossible to tell where the actual 1.3 billionth child was born using current statistics technology. "But we needed a ceremony when the 1.3 billionth child came, because it marked a special peak in the Chinese population," he said.

 

Experts allowed a wide margin of error when estimating the arrival date, since many births are reported late or not at all, according to Zhou.

 

Newborns are required to be registered in local public security bureaus, which turn over the registration to the higher authorities for population statistics.

 

The Chinese government adopted its family planning policy in the 1970s to rein in the country's rapid population growth. Demographers say that without it, Baby No. 1.3 Billion would have arrived on the scene four years earlier.

 

The 1.2 billionth Chinese citizen, Zhao Xu, was born at the Beijing Hospital of Gynecology on February 15, 1995. He is now in the fourth grade.

 

The 1.1 billionth citizen was identified on April 14, 1989.

 

(China.org.cn by Unisumoon January 20, 2005)

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