Despite forecasts that China is on the doorstep to its 18th "warm" winter, meteorologists cite Tibet Autonomous Region as the one exception.

Most parts of the southwestern autonomous region reported an average temperature drop from last year by one to two degrees Celsius in October and November, apparent signs for a colder winter, said Purbu Zhoema, a senior engineer and chief forecaster with the regional meteorological bureau.

Affected by cold currents from the north, the regional capital Lhasa welcomed on Nov. 24 this winter's very first snowfall, which lasted for five straight hours from midnight to daybreak.

"The average snowfall was 4.1 millimeters and fallen snow on the ground of downtown Lhasa was three centimeters thick," said Purbu Zhoema, adding that the snowfall has relieved to a large extent the winter drought.

Prior to Lhasa's snowfall, many parts of Tibet embraced heavy snow or rain measuring more than 100 millimeters early in October, which had come as a surprise on the "roof of the world" as the region had reported sustained temperature rises in the past four years since 2000.

Purbu Zhoema enumerated a host of reasons for this year's climate changes. "Rising ocean temperature and the El Nino are all related to such changes," she said.

She went on to say that most parts of the autonomous region will experience further temperature declines in the months ahead, particularly along the Yarlung Zangbo River, which rises in the Gyaimayangzon Glacier on the northern slope of the Himalayas and runs 2,960 kilometers, 2,057 km of which are in Tibet.

Chinese climate experts predicted earlier this month that China may have a warm winter this year, but have floods and droughts next summer since El Nino conditions are developing in the Pacific Ocean.

The National Climate Center's latest monitoring showed that ocean water is 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal in most part of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, indicating that El Nino conditions are in the making.

Besides, meteorologists say the ocean water in that region is very much likely to remain warm through this winter.

(Xinhua News Agency December 1, 2004)