Japan's ruling camp looks likely to lose a July 29 upper house election, newspaper surveys showed yesterday, an outcome that threatens to stall Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's conservative agenda and could cost him his job.

The surveys by the Asahi and Sankei newspapers were the latest to forecast a loss for Abe's coalition after government bungling of pension records and a series of gaffes and scandals that led ministers to resign and one to commit suicide.

"There is no reason to think that the trend will change this week," said Yasunori Sone, a political science professor at Tokyo's Keio University.

Abe, 52, took power last September pledging to boost Japan's global security profile and rewrite its pacifist constitution.

Those changes would be welcome to the United States, Japan's closest security ally, but rank well below bread-and-butter issues such as pensions with most voters.

Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the New Komeito, need a combined total of 64 seats to keep their majority in the upper house, where half of the 242 seats are up for grabs. The New Komeito is aiming for 13 seats.

Based on a July 19-21 survey, the conservative Sankei newspaper forecast that the ruling camp would get between 48 and 61 seats, with the most likely scenario that it would take about 55 seats, including 44 for the LDP.

But with many voters undecided the result remains uncertain.

The coalition would not be ejected from power if it lost the election since it controls the more powerful lower house.

If the coalition falls short of a majority by just a few seats it can probably keep its grip on the upper house by wooing independents or members of tiny parties. But a big defeat would make it hard to enact laws, put pressure on the once-popular Abe to resign, and usher in an era of policy paralysis.

If the LDP fails to hold on to at least 40 seats, Abe will come under serious pressure to resign, but political insiders say he will try hard to cling to his post.

Foreign Minister Taro Aso, 66, a political veteran who shares much of Abe's policy agenda but is known for his love of "manga" comics and for verbal gaffes, is widely seen as a frontrunner to replace Abe.

Other potential candidates include the more dovish former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, 62, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, 71, both of whom could benefit from not being tainted by membership of Abe's cabinet, analysts said.

(China Daily via agencies July 24, 2007)