The second phase of the fourth-round six-party talks kicked-off in Beijing Tuesday.

 

Trapped in a chicken-and-egg debate, will the upcoming talks face insurmountable difficulties and uncertainties?

 

War, sanctions, conflicts, "rogue state," "axis of evil," "outpost of tyranny" and anti-US parades have nailed the US and North Korea on opposite sides of the same coin.

 

The mistrust has lead to a chicken-and-egg debate with two major gaps unbridged in the first phase of the fourth-round of six-party talks.

 

First, Washington demands Pyongyang give up the right to a civilian nuclear program for fears of transformation to military use. Pyongyang, with only one card in hand, insists on its right for fears of "rubber check."

 

The US and North Korea are also grappling over whether North Korea should dismantle its nuclear program before receiving aid, guarantees and recognition, or whether the US concessions should come first, or even at the same time.

 

"Lacking trust, the two parties are trapped in the vicious cycle of a chicken-and-egg debate," Ruan Zongze, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, said, "No one wants to take the initiative."

 

During the one-month recess, Pyongyang's insistence on a civilian nuclear program has been enhanced. South Korea seemed willing to recognize North Korea's right with certain conditions. Meanwhile, the US softened its attitude in a double negative way in its agreement with Japan -- the US will not accept North Korea's right unless it fulfills three conditions.

 

"Even if they reach a certain agreement," Ruan said, "the implementation process is still full of difficulties due to the mistrust."

 

The second phase might bring some fruits. However, since issues concerning the core interests of six parties have been unveiled, the talks still face enormous uncertainties, analysts said.

 

"I'm cautiously optimistic," said Wang Yizhou, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

 

"My guess is an agreement has 60 percent chance."

 

Nevertheless, a communiqué or agreement is not the proper standard by which to judge the talks, Ruan acknowledged.

 

"The half-a-century conflicts have made the problem too complicated and the talks made the worsening situation a little better," Ruan said, "That's the most valuable part of the six-party talks."

 

"Two years ago, North Korea and the US were at swords' points," Ruan said, now they sit down and have a talk.

 

This model, which is widely acclaimed, is likely to become a new mechanism for the solution of security issues in Northeast Asia, he added.

 

(Xinhua News Agency September 13, 2005)