By Saud Abu Ramadan

It becomes obvious that rival Islamic Hamas movement and President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement will not be able to launch a comprehensive dialogue in Cairo, before Hamas declares a long-term truce with Israel, analysts said.

An official Hamas delegation is currently in Cairo negotiating an 18-month-truce with Israel and preparing for a national reconciliation among all Palestinian political groups, mainly between rival Fatah and Hamas.

"Only if a truce agreement is reached between Hamas and Israel, the second issue of reconciliation between rival Fatah and Hamas will be smoothly followed and the chances for achieving a reconciliation will be high," said Ahmed Abu Rahma, a Palestinian analyst from Gaza.

Yet the third issue, the one concerning captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, which Hamas officials said has not been discussed with Egyptian mediators, still blocks any progress in both issues – the ceasefire and the inter-Palestinian reconciliation.

Hamas government spokesman Taher al-Noono had earlier said an 18-month-truce with Israel might be declared soon, accusing Israel of blocking the truce declaration.

Israel said on Saturday that there will be no truce with Hamas before the release of Shalit, while Hamas insists that any truce talks with Israel, mediated by Egypt, be separated from negotiations over the release of Shalit.

The Gazans, who were worn down by a devastating Israeli air, sea and ground military assault last month, harbored mixed feelings of despair and optimism.

They became optimistic following the good news of the upcoming truce deal of 18 month in Gaza, and reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas officials in Cairo.

Their despair, however, mounted after they heard the recent Israeli statements that no truce deal would be inked until Hamas frees corporal Shalit, who has been held captive since the summer of 2006.

"We really got sick of such a situation. Nothing had changed in Gaza since the end of the Israeli crazy war that ended on January 18," said Ahmed A'kkel, a Gaza graduated student, who majored in commerce and cannot find a job in the besieged coastal enclave.

He said everything is becoming complicated. "Why do both Israel and Hamas are torturing us severely? why don't they agree on Shalit and agree on a truce and end our severe daily suffering soon?"

A'kkel said if the situation in Gaza continues the same way, " it's better to leave Gaza and look for another place to live."

Meanwhile, it is possible that the Palestinians see their feuding political parties sitting together around the negotiating table as Hamas and Fatah movements held a series of meetings in Cairo as part of the Egyptian efforts to resume Palestinian unity talks.

According to Azzam el-Ahmed, a Fatah lawmaker based in the West Bank, a comprehensive Palestinian dialogue would be launched on Feb. 22, adding that five major committees will be formed, and then begin to work on Feb. 28.

But Abu Rahma, a 45-year-old political analyst, doubted that the Palestinians would be able to resume their national dialogue, saying "without reaching a truce with Israel, the dialogue and reconciliation are becoming a mission impossible."

Cairo meetings, described positive by both sides, restored some hope that a 20-month-old political schism aroused by Hamas' bloody seizure of Gaza could be overcome.

According to media sources from Cairo, the Hamas-Fatah meetings has come up to an understanding which is directed towards a wider dialogue that Egypt will host on Feb. 22 to achieve national reconciliation.

The dialogue will tackle the consequences of Hamas' violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in June 2007 by routing security forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said the sources.

The two sides agreed to stop incitement campaigns against each other and to halt politically-motivated arrests against their dissidents: Hamas supporters in the West Bank and Fatah members in the Gaza Strip.

The sources said Hamas and Fatah became more eager for a dialogue as a result of Israel's massive offensive on Gaza last month which killed over 1,300 Palestinians, and left thousands of families homeless and much of Gaza in ruins.

The rise of the Israeli rightists in the general election this month generated fears among Fatah that their Israeli peace partner would quit the scene, said the sources.

So Fatah decided to overcome the internal Palestinian splits in order to get ready for the outcomes of the Israeli election, which delivered a slim majority of the centrist party Kadima over its main rival center-right Likud Party, according to the sources.

Kadima leader – Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni – led Israel's peace talks with Abbas last year.

(Xinhua News Agency February 16, 2009)