Both ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and the interim government have accepted Costa Rican President Oscar Arias as a mediator, but it remains to be seen how far international mediation can go to help solve the political deadlock in the country.

Zelaya, who will travel to Costa Rica where the mediation is to be conducted, said he was pleased with Arias' appointment, adding that it showed "the international community is still supporting democracy in Honduras."

Meanwhile, interim Honduran President Roberto Micheletti said he would send a delegation soon to Costa Rica, but noted the meeting "doesn't mean that Zelaya will be allowed to return."

Glimmer of hope

The new development in the Honduran political crisis came after Zelaya's meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, the highest-level contact between him and US President Barack Obama's administration since Zelaya was ousted in the June 28 coup.

Clinton said: "It is our hope, that through this dialogue mechanism overseen by President Arias, there can be a restoration of democratic, constitutional order, a peaceful resolution of this matter."

Calling on both sides to refrain from further violence in order to break the political deadlock, Cliton said she was "heartened" that Zelaya had agreed to Arias' mediation and would not try again to force his way back to Honduras.

Zelaya tried in vain on Sunday to return home only to find that his plane was unable to land at the airport as the runway was blocked by soldiers with military vehicles. He was forced to land in neighboring Nicaragua and vowed to try again.

Another optimistic sign of compromise came when a Honduran Supreme Court spokesman told the media on Tuesday that Zelaya would be allowed to return if the Congress granted him amnesty.

The softened stance was in stark contrast to the interim government's earlier threats to arrest Zelaya for 18 alleged criminal acts if he returned to the country.

International opinions

The coup has been widely condemned abroad as international pressure mounts on the interim government, and the Organization of American States decided last Saturday to suspend Honduras's membership after the post-coup authorities missed a deadline on Zelaya's reinstatement.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday in Geneva he was saddened by the loss of life due to clashes between troops and Zelaya's supporters, and urged the authorities to protect civilians. He said the military coup was "unacceptable".

Voices calling for Zelaya to temporarily stay abroad and solve the crisis through diplomatic mediation have also been heard from the international community.

However, the US government's approach can exert by far the most important influence on development of the crisis. The United States has an air base with hundreds of troops near the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa.

Up to now, the US government has offered support for Zelaya only because of his legal status as Honduras' elected president.

"America supports the restoration of the democratically elected president of Honduras, even though he has strongly opposed American policies," Obama said on Tuesday during his visit to Russia. He said: "We do so not because we agree with him."

The US State Department said it had suspended military assistance programs and a few development assistance programs to Honduras, but analysts said the interim government could possibly stay in power as long as the US does not adopt a hostile stance toward it.

Possible solutions

Results of the upcoming talks in Costa Rica will largely depend on both sides' positions. A solution could be found if Zelaya agrees to ditch his plan to lift presidential term limits.

The opposition accused Zelaya, whose current term expires next January, of seeking re-election through a referendum originally scheduled for June 28 on removing the current one-term constitutional limit for presidents, while the Supreme Court and the attorney-general said that the vote would be illegal.

However, if the two sides fail to compromise and the talks fall apart, Honduras is likely to face increasing international isolation.

Another possible scenario is that the interim government could hold early elections, as it has already suggested. Zelaya also said he accepted the possibility of holding elections before the scheduled date of Nov. 29.

"Of course, even if (the interim government) wants to hold elections as early as tomorrow, a de facto government does not give legitimacy to an electoral process," Zelaya told reporters after meeting with Clinton.

Analysts said the most likely scenario is that the interim government would prolong the negotiation process to gain time until the elections in November, when the crisis can be solved in a peaceful and legitimate way.

(Xinhua News Agency July 8, 2009)