Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will not resign whatever the results of a July 29 election for parliament's upper house, a ruling party executive said after a string of polls showing the ruling camp was set to lose.

Media surveys have forecast a probable loss for Abe's coalition after his support rates slid to around 30 percent amid voter anger over bungled pension records and a series of gaffes and scandals that led ministers to resign and one to commit suicide.

"This election is not directly linked to selecting the prime minister, so I think Mr Abe will continue as prime minister," Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) policy chief Shoichi Nakagawa told a news conference yesterday.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki echoed that sentiment, brushing off comparisons to Ryutaro Hashimoto, who stepped down as prime minister in 1998 after the LDP suffered a stunning loss in an upper house poll. "I believe it was a decision made by the administration at the time," Shiozaki told a news conference.

The LDP and its coalition partner, the New Komeito, need a combined total of 64 seats to keep their majority in the upper house, where half the 242 seats are up for grabs. The New Komeito is aiming for 13 seats.

Nakagawa acknowledged the situation was "very severe" for the LDP, but said Abe's strategy was to stick with his reform agenda. "The core focus of the election is to pursue reforms triggered by (former prime minister Junichiro) Koizumi and activate reform under Abe's leadership," Nakagawa said. "This election will show how the public judges our reforms so far."

Abe's coalition will not be ejected from power if it loses the election since it controls the more powerful lower house, which picks the prime minister.

But a big defeat would make it hard to enact laws, put pressure on the once-popular Abe to resign, and usher in an era of policy paralysis, analysts say.

(China Daily via agencies July 25, 2007)