Exaggerating China's local government debt

By John Ross
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, July 25, 2011
Adjust font size:

However, by this time sensationalist coverage was appearing. The New York Times carried an analysis by Lina Song claiming "local government debt in China is a time bomb." US analysts Michael Pettis, who previously inaccurately claimed the US would be one of the first countries out of the financial crisis and China would be one of the last, wrote a piece claiming "dangerously high levels of municipal debt". The International Herald Tribune carried an analysis under the self-explanatory headline: "Threat lurking under China's explosive growth; Mountains of debt used to create infrastructure bring risk of bad loans". As the whole issue is typical of the methods by which the reality of China's economy is distorted it is worth analysing.

First, Moody's has either to satisfactorily reply to the fundamental point made by China's Central Bank or it should withdraw the report – it hasn't done either to date. However, for the sake of argument, take a worst case scenario and assume the Moody's report was accurate. It would still not mean that there was any fundamental threat to the stability of China's financial system.

When China launched its stimulus programme in 2008, to deal with the consequences of the international financial crisis, this necessarily involved sharply increased bank lending. This helped generate economic growth. This was far preferable to the situation in the US, UK and other countries where reduction in bank lending worsened the recession.

The Chinese authorities were not naive however, and knew that if bank lending is increased in conditions of financial crisis there is bound to be an increase in bad loans. Banks were therefore ordered to increase provision for bad debt and raise extra capital. The calculation was the simple and rational one that the gain from economic growth would allow the increased level of bad debt to be written off without significant problems and this was preferable to economic downturn.

The accuracy of this calculation was shown by the fact that since 2008 China's economy has expanded by over 30 percent, or $2 trillion, while the US economy has only just regained its pre-crisis GDP level.

As was therefore entirely predictable, bad debts have appeared, some in local government. As was equally predictable the rapid economic growth in the intervening period gives China's government more than enough resources to deal with them.

This entire process was gone through before in the last decade, when China's debt was higher than it is now. In 2001 bad loans from China's state banks accounted for 41 percent of GDP – partially because of the stimulus programme launched to successfully overcome the effects of the South East Asian debt crisis. As Yang Yao, director of the China Center for Economic Research, Peking University noted on this: "The Chinese economy was able to grow so fast that the government could write off the non-performing loans without much pain." And a decade later China's banks now have the highest market capitalisation and profitability of any in the world.

The same exists today. Rapid economic growth generated by the stimulus package gives China's government easily enough revenue to recapitalise banks even if the worst scenario of Moody's were to be true – which we repeat it has not presented any satisfactory proof of.

In short the whole alleged "local government debt crisis" is wildly exaggerated. There are enough serious problems in the world economy today to deal with not to waste time inventing them. The US government is not going to default. China's banking system is not going to default. In the short or medium term Greece is going to default. Anyone wanting to deal with the real world should concentrate on its real problems.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/node_7080931.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

 

   Previous   1   2  


Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲另类第一页| 吃奶呻吟打开双腿做受在线视频| 999zyz色资源站在线观看| 成人性视频在线| 久久国产精品-国产精品| 欧美大香线蕉线伊人久久| 人人添人人妻人人爽夜欢视av| 精品无码无人网站免费视频 | 95免费观看体验区视频| 好男人资源在线观看好| 中文字幕亚洲综合久久男男| 日韩影片在线观看| 亚洲AV综合色区无码一区| 欧美性色19p| 亚洲精品无码专区在线在线播放 | 国产精品偷伦视频观看免费| 亚洲第一视频网站| 精品一区二区三区免费毛片| 另类内射国产在线| 色天使亚洲综合一区二区| 国产免费内射又粗又爽密桃视频| 激情综合网五月| 国产精品乱码一区二区三区| 8av国产精品爽爽ⅴa在线观看| 在线视频www| A级毛片内射免费视频| 好吊妞乱淫欧美| 一个色综合导航| 少妇极品熟妇人妻| 一级毛片免费观看不卡的 | 亚洲精品无码mv在线观看| 狠狠色噜噜狠狠狠888米奇视频| 免费精品99久久国产综合精品| 综合激情网五月| 午夜精品一区二区三区在线观看| 美女胸又www又黄网站| 四虎在线视频免费观看| 老司机永久免费视频| 国产91青青成人a在线| 老鸭窝laoyawo国产精品| 国产gaysexchina男同menxnxx|