GDP growth may exceed official target

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Shanghai Daily, March 22, 2012
Adjust font size:

Editor's note: China's Premier Wen Jiabao this month cut China's economic growth outlook this year from a long-held 8 percent to 7.5 percent. The announcement has economists buzzing. Here's what some of them had to say.

We raise the expectation for China's economic growth this year to 8.6 percent from 8.3 percent, mainly due to three reasons.

(1) Our global team has raised its growth forecast for the US and Japan this year and sees China's PMI sub-index for new export orders rising. Those encourage us to raise China's export growth from 8 percent to 13 percent this year.

(2) Smaller businesses that account for 70 percent of employment in the industrial sectors are improving.

(3) The impact of the cooler property market on China's economy was not as serious as we used to think.

PMIs (which measure the activity of purchasing managers) in the US, Japan and Europe have been improving in recent months. Based on our experience, every 1.5 percentage point increase in the weighted average economic growth indices for the three countries will lead to a 5 percentage point increase in China's exports.

Our global team in February raised Japan's economic growth forecast from 0.7 percent to 2.5 percent, and for the US, from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent. That will lift China's export growth by 4 to 5 percentage point this year.

Compared with the third quarter last year, the commercial environment for small businesses in China has improved significantly. They altogether account for more than 90 percent of industrial companies. Improved liquidity, easing price pressures on raw materials and a recovery of export orders drove the PMI index for smaller companies to a two-year high of 55.2 in February.

Besides, we expect regulatory extension for several hundred billion yuan of local government debt, which will indirectly improve liquidity for smaller businesses.

The correlation between the decline in the property market and the economy has been proven weaker than we previously thought. With a stable inventory in the industrial sector and the absence of any sharp slowdown in exports, the link between property controls and a manufacturing slowdown is weaker than the property slump of 2008.

Though growth in new residential construction in the last four months of 2011 eased 55 percent year on year, that slowdown will drag this year's gross domestic product down by less than 1 percentage point.

Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产商场真空露出在线观看| 天堂网在线观看在线观看精品| 久久精品日日躁夜夜躁欧美| 欧美激情视频二区| 免费现黄频在线观看国产| 色婷婷天天综合在线| 国产性色视频在线高清| 大胸喷奶水的www的视频网站| 国内精品视频一区二区八戒 | 中文天堂在线www| 日本媚薬痉挛在线观看免费| 亚洲AV激情无码专区在线播放| 欧美日韩一区二区综合| 亚洲色图欧美在线| 男人j桶进女人p无遮挡在线观看 | 伊人色综合久久天天| 精品久久久久久| 午夜精品福利视频| 美女视频一区二区| 国产一区二区视频在线观看| 韩国中文电影在线看完整免费版| 朝鲜女**又多又黑毛片全免播放| 亚洲欧美一级久久精品| 老熟女高潮一区二区三区| 国产午夜无码片在线观看| 久草网视频在线| 国产福利第一视频| 老司机精品视频在线| 国产精品视频在| 97精品国产97久久久久久免费| 女人18毛片一级毛片在线| 一本色综合久久| 成人做受120视频试看| 中文字幕无码av激情不卡 | 草草影院最新发布地址| 国产另类的人妖ts视频| 鲁啊鲁阿鲁在线视频播放| 国产成人精品久久一区二区三区| 四虎国产精品高清在线观看 | 欧美一级片在线看| 亚洲免费网站观看视频|