The European economy in the mist

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Shanghai Daily, March 28, 2012
Adjust font size:

Towards the end of last year, there was only one subject that anyone wanted to talk about. From Brussels to Beijing, the euro was the sole topic of conversation. Would the eurozone survive? Would Greece leave? Would Germany leave?

Then, life in the eurozone became a lot easier, thanks mostly to extra money provided by the European Central Bank. Its long-term repo operations - now simply called LTROs - have provided cheap funds to banks, some of which found themselves in deep trouble as 2011 was drawing to a close.

The liquidity was much needed, not only by the banks themselves but also, indirectly, by governments. Banks were able to borrow at one percent per annum for a three-year period. In some cases, they used these funds to invest in government bonds.

It wasn't quite the quantitative easing pursued by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. But the result was the same: Sovereign yields came down and the immediate funding crisis went away.

So are we now out of the woods? No, not yet. There are three big challenges that haven't yet been resolved:

Growth

Imbalances

Fiscal union

Let's kick off with growth. The German economy may be as solid as a rock, but many other eurozone countries are wilting under the pressure of continued austerity.

In some cases, the process has been self-defeating: austerity leads to lower growth, lower growth leads to lower tax revenues, lower tax revenues lead to a rising budget deficit, default risk rises… and more austerity is required.

Yet there are few, if any signs, that growth in the peripheral economies - from Italy and Spain to Portugal and Greece - is going to return any time soon. For all these countries, recession is in danger of becoming a way of life.

The second big challenge is imbalances. Members of this audience are very familiar with the global version of this story - China's trade surplus and America's trade deficit. And you'll know very well that the deficit nation spends a lot of its time and energy blaming the surplus nation for the imbalance.

Eurozone imbalance

The same imbalance exists within the eurozone: Germany with its trade surplus - bigger than China's, by the way - Italy, Spain and others with their deficits. In the eurozone, the blame flows in the other direction: the surplus nations berate the deficit nations. The eurozone's imbalances either need to be recycled more effectively or they need to be reduced.

How can the eurozone's imbalances be recycled more effectively? It might be better, perhaps, for Germany's excess savings to be invested at home or, instead, in southern European factories, not just in pieces of paper.

In the pre-crisis period, too much of Germany's investment abroad went into US mortgage-backed securities and southern European government debt. That needs to change.

Reducing the eurozone's imbalances will be no easy task. All the focus at the moment is on Europe's borrowers. They're the ones having to deliver austerity. But what of Europe's lenders?

Germany's trade surplus can come down in one of two ways: either imports rise or exports fall. If Germans chose to spend more of their export revenues on imports, the German surplus would then fall. And if the imports came from southern Europe - it doesn't matter if they're goods or tourism receipts - then German domestic demand growth could then give southern European economies some much needed support.

The alternative is not so pleasant.

Germans are rightly proud of their tremendous export success. A lot of people have talked about the impressive inroads German exporters have made in this part of the world. And they're right: six percent of German exports last year went to China alone.

Yet Germany is still incredibly dependent on trade with southern Europe. Ten percent of its exports head south to Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Their problems are quickly in danger of becoming Germany's problems too. Contagion is in danger of running northwards over the Alps into Germany, the Netherlands and other creditor nations. A southern European recession could also become a northern European recession.

Finally, fiscal union. It's difficult to think of any monetary union that's survived without some form of fiscal union. The Latin Monetary Union came to a sticky end. The Scandinavian Union fell apart. And, following the break-up of the Soviet Union, the trouble area survived for only a handful of months as newly formed nation states headed off in different fiscal directions.

Some monetary unions have flourished. We often forget that the US is a monetary union. And with the prospect of a referendum on Scottish independence looming large, it's increasingly obvious that the United Kingdom, too, is a monetary union.

Monetary unions work partly because both labour and capital can move around unimpeded. But they also work because they make use of fiscal safety valves. Taxpayers in wealthier parts of the union are called upon to provide support to those in disadvantaged parts of the union.

Old principle

This only works if all those involved have a say. In the eurozone, that isn't yet happening. Europe needs to establish an old - but revolutionary - principle: "No European taxation without European representation."

In other words, for the monetary union to succeed, it's not enough to rely on the ECB's printing press or specific help for Greece. There needs also to be a fiscal union.

This will not be easy. It involves sacrifices from both creditors and debtors.

Yet the stakes are high.

Should the eurozone project fail, the costs will be felt far and wide: Lehman was bad enough… eurozone failure could be even worse. European leaders know this. And they also know their history.

Since the end of the Second World War, European integration has strengthened. There have been numerous setbacks, but each time they have been overcome. The euro crisis is perhaps the biggest challenge so far.

Europe now faces a stark choice. I fully expect it to make the right choice.

Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 四虎国产永久在线观看| 欧妇女乱妇女乱视频| 国产乱妇乱子视频在播放| wwwxx在线| 国产香蕉97碰碰久久人人| sihu永久在线播放地址| 欧美videosdesexo肥婆| 亚洲码欧美码一区二区三区| 秋霞日韩久久理论电影| 台湾佬中文娱乐网在线更新| 韩国黄色片在线观看| 国产欧美一区二区久久| www一区二区| 欧美sss视频| 亚洲成av人片在线观看无码不卡| 狂野欧美激情性xxxx| 国产免费午夜a无码v视频| 日本三级香港三级人妇99视| 小婷又紧又深又滑又湿好爽| 亚洲AV无码不卡| 欧美性v视频播放| 免费黄色网址入口| 黑白禁区高清免费观看全集电视剧| 国产精品黄页在线播放免费| 99在线观看精品| 手机看片1024旧版| 亚洲va中文字幕无码久久| 欧美日韩国产在线观看| 亚洲男人的天堂在线播放| 爱情岛论坛首页永久入口| 伊人网综合在线视频| 青青青在线观看视频免费播放| 国产手机在线视频放线视频| 99爱在线视频这里只有精品 | 日本中文字幕网| 久久国产成人精品| 欧美黑人激情性久久| 国产AV午夜精品一区二区三区| 高h全肉动漫在线观看免费| 国产成人av在线免播放观看| 黑人粗长大战亚洲女2021国产精品成人免费视频 |