The fact that a country that has illegally invaded multiple sovereign countries in the last sixty years and entertains friendly diplomatic relations with medieval monarchies in the Middle East is so concerned about the civil liberties of the Cuban population is a comment on itself. Though it is undoubtedly far-from-perfect, the Cuban revolution has survived the collapse of the Soviet Union and a rather hostile environment with dignity.

Compared to several other Latin American countries, the living conditions in Cuba are far higher than average, crime rates are incomparably lower and its fulfillment of basic human rights such as health care, education and housing are the envy of many nations around the world, America included. Yet the Cuban economy has struggled considerably, especially since the demise of communism in Russia. That is why this potential new chapter in the history of U.S.-Cuban relations could herald both a more prosperous era for Cuba and a profound change in its political status.

No one really knows what future developments might realistically be like. Caution on the side of the Cuban authorities certainly signals their determination not to sell out the country's political independence or its resources. Obviously both parties see some advantages in the normalization of their diplomatic relations, but the price that each will have to pay for this normalization is still extremely unclear.

Given the disproportionate imbalance of power between the two nations and the limited leverage Cuba can exercise during possible negotiations, it is not entirely irrational to think that those who will have to compromise the most will be the Cubans. Cuba's government structure is in fact already said to be changing in order to make more room for civil society and free enterprise in life on the island.

On the other hand, America's decision to change its imperialist attitude toward the Marxist island could be seen as a great victory for Cuba, which has not surrendered after all these years and is now watching its historic enemy admit its mistakes. Only time will tell what this new era will mean for Cuba.

For the time being, though, it is clear that things are not moving quickly. It is quite the opposite. When Cuba's presence at the Summit of the Americas in Panama was announced last December after years of the country's absence from the forum, it was seen by many commentators as a clear sign of the fast-changing relations between the U.S. and Cuba. When the respective presidents actually met in Panama this April, nothing much came of it except for a widely-circulated photo of a handshake between Castro and Obama. Although that gesture is surely of historic symbolic significance, on a more substantial and formal level, nothing was decided in Panama. There is no Cuban embassy opening in Washington nor an American one opening in Havana. So far, words have been more prominent than facts and actions, which is why the nature and future of this historic change in geopolitical trajectories is everything but defined.

The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/giovannivimercati.htm

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