How G20 meeting could defuse world trade risks

By Dan Steinbock
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Shanghai Daily, July 6, 2016
Adjust font size:

This weekend the trade ministers of G20 shall meet in Shanghai. It is an opportunity for China to pave the way for the G20 Summit in Hangzhou in September.

Led by China, G20 economies could refocus global attention to world trade and investment, even amid rising economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk. Indeed, one of the greatest risks the global economy is facing is world trade. It has not just slowed down. It has nearly collapsed.

The writing has been on the wall for some time. Let's start with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which provides a crude estimate of the price of moving major commodities by sea. It peaked with globalization at 11,793 points in May 2008, plunging 94 percent to just 663 points amid the global crisis. Today, it remains around 690 points.

Broader world trade indicators, too, suggest that world trade is barely breathing. World export volumes are not just growing more slowly, but have been falling for half a decade. Manufactured exports have been declining in price since 2011. After recovering in 2010 and early 2011, world trade ceased to grow in total value, flattened and began to fall in nominal terms after late 2014.

In part, the trend reflects the collapse of oil prices; but it is also self-induced. The fall in the total value of global trade is concentrated in a small number of product categories, which happen to be the very same products in which the G20 has imposed proportionally more trade restrictions since early 2014.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been more encouraging but not immune to new headwinds. Last year, global FDI climbed 38 percent year-on-year basis to US$1.8 trillion. However, it is still behind the high reached before the global financial crisis.

In the coming months, China is likely to encourage other G20 members to ratify the World Trade Organization's (WTO) trade facilitation agreement by the year-end to propel world trade. As Vice-Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen said recently, that would improve global trade environment, reduce costs of world trade, foster coordination between trade and investment policies, reinforce services trade, generate global trade indexes and foster e-commerce, and introducing trade financing.

According to the WTO, the implementation of the trade facilitation agreement has the potential to increase global merchandise exports by up to US$1 trillion per year, while developing countries could capture over half of the available gains.

From the burst of the Dotcom bubble at the turn of the 2000s to the global financial crisis in 2008-9 and the Euro crisis in early 2010, recent periods of acute financial stress have witnessed the collapse of world trade.

In the past few years, major central banks in advanced economies have sought to defuse these pressures by deploying record-low rates and quantitative easing (QE). However, as some are now resorting to negative rates and QE effects are diminishing, the potential for collateral damage is rising. As a result, G20's success in energizing world trade might prove far more consequential over time.

Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). For more, see www.differencegroup.net

Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 字幕网免费高清观看电影| 樱桃视频高清免费观看在线播放 | 毛片在线免费观看网站| 免费高清在线爱做视频| 老鸭窝视频在线观看| 国产在线视精品麻豆| 亚洲婷婷第一狠人综合精品| 国语自产少妇精品视频蜜桃| 免费一级一片一毛片| 老师你的兔子好软水好多的车视频| 国产成人AV免费观看| poren日本| 成人欧美一区二区三区| 久久久久亚洲精品男人的天堂| 曰韩无码无遮挡a级毛片| 免费扒开女人下面使劲桶| 老司机电影网你懂得视频| 国产国产精品人在线视| 欧美一级久久久久久久大片| 国产精品国产三级国产普通话| 97精品国产一区二区三区| 无码A级毛片免费视频内谢| 久久精品国产亚洲香蕉| 欧产日产国产精品| 亚洲午夜精品一区二区| 欧美极度极品另类| 亚洲欧美日韩综合一区| 波多野结衣在线免费视频| 人人添人人妻人人爽夜欢视AV| 男女抽搐一进一出无遮挡| 免费观看无遮挡www的小视频| 精品无码久久久久久久久| 啊轻点灬大ji巴太粗太长了视| 色爱无码av综合区| 国产亚洲精品美女久久久久| 香蕉在线精品一区二区| 国产成人精品无码免费看| 国产在线观看麻豆91精品免费| 国产真实伦在线观看| chinese体育生gayxxxxhd| 小莹与翁回乡下欢爱姿势|