The Chinese economy will grow by 9.28 percent in 2011 if the United States can stay out of a double- dip recession and the eurozone can steer itself clear of a sovereign debt crisis this year, economists from China's Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore said in their latest forecasts released on Saturday.
The China's Macroeconomic Outlook 2011-2012 and Policy Simulations report also projected that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation will hit 5.34 percent for the full year.
Slowdown inevitable
It forecast a GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 8.91 percent and a CPI growth of 4.93 percent for 2012.
"We think that China's GDP growth will inevitably slow down at the stage it is at, due to weak recovery in the external markets and the macroeconomic policies gradually coming back to normal in China," the report said.
"The Chinese economy is most likely to grow at a range between 9 percent and 8 percent for some time to come," said Li Wenpu, an economist from Xiamen University and one of the leaders of the research.
Chen Kang, professor of economics from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, said that the forecasts were based on "prudently optimistic" assumptions that the United States economy will grow by 1.7 percent this year and further bounces back to achieve a normal speed of growth and that the eurozone will stay out of a sovereign debt crisis this year and slows down a bit next year, dragged by the deepening crisis.
The interest rates in China is assumed to stay stable this year and the money supply M2 grows by 16 percent this year and 17 percent in 2012, respectively.
Impact from possible U.S. Double-dip recession
If the United States slips into a double dip recession in the first and second quarters of 2012, with the economic growth lower at 1.1 percent, however, the Chinese economy will grow by 8.24 percent in 2012, 0.67 percentage point lower than the base forecast.
The forecast was based on a slowdown in eurozone and China cut its interest rates by 0.25 percentage point early next year.
The CPI inflation will also be lower at 3.95 percent, the report said.
"Given the complex factors leading to the inflation, it will take quite some time for it to be stabilized. The inflation will stay high at 4 percent to 5.4 percent this year and next year," it said.
The researchers said China should keep its hand tight on inflation and avoid excess investments aimed at too fast growth of the economy by stimulating it.
Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore have been releasing their forecasts for the Chinese economy twice a year since 2006. They also partnered with the Economic Information Daily of China to release the forecasts in China.
主站蜘蛛池模板： 国产肥熟女视频一区二区三区| 美腿丝袜中文字幕| 日本精品一区二区三区视频| 免费**毛片在线播放直播| 日韩在线播放全免费| 天堂网www中文在线| 久久精品中文字幕免费| 欧美成人一区二区三区在线电影| 四虎精品影院永久在线播放| 91亚洲国产成人精品下载| 女性生殖殖器特级表演| 中文字幕热久久久久久久| 欧美日韩国产成人高清视频| 免费一级片在线| 美女AV一区二区三区| 国产乱码在线观看| 91久久香蕉国产线看| 天天摸天天做天天爽天天弄| 中国娇小与黑人巨大交| 欧洲最强rapper潮水免费| 亚洲激情黄色小说| 狠狠躁夜夜躁人人爽天天天天97 | 特级毛片全部免费播放a一级| 午夜剧场1000| 成年美女黄网站色| 国产精品乱子乱XXXX| 2018国产大陆天天弄| 国产超碰人人模人人爽人人喊 | 男人添女人下部高潮全视频 | 性xxxx黑人与亚洲| 中文字幕亚洲欧美日韩不卡| 末成年女a∨片一区二区| 亚洲国产精品久久人人爱| 精品丝袜国产自在线拍亚洲| 国产午夜精品一区二区| 69式啪啪动图| 嫣嫣是女大生韩漫免费看| 久久精品国产99精品最新| 毛片免费视频观看| 亚洲美女视频网址| 绿巨人在线视频免费观看完整版|