China's consumer lending market is expected to triple to 21 trillion yuan ($3.3 trillion) by 2015, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
The balance of consumer lending, including mortgages, credit card balances, automobile loans and unsecured personal loans, will grow at an average annual rate of 24 percent over the next five years, driven by rising personal incomes and government support, the report said.
"Consumer lending in China started almost from scratch a decade or two ago. The country's consumer loans accounted for just 18 percent of GDP in 2009, still far lower than other more developed Asian markets, such as South Korea and Malaysia, where the comparable penetration reaches 40 to 50 percent," said Richard Huang, partner and managing director at BCG.
"As China's market matures, fueled by economic growth and government policy, we expect the rate is likely to rise to roughly 30 percent by 2015," he said.
China is emphasizing economic restructuring, from primarily export- and investment-driven to consumption-driven, during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period.
The government targets a level of personal consumption relative to GDP at 42 percent to 45 percent by 2015, up from the current 36 percent.
"Related government initiatives involve the stimulation of consumption of cars, electrical appliances, home furnishings and so forth.
The policy will continue to spur consumption and financing in the near future," said Huang.
Although personal credit cards only became broadly available in the early 2000s, they now comprise the second-largest market for consumer lending products after mortgages, the report said.
"Credit card receivables have been growing at close to triple-digit rates in the past five years, and we expect them to grow at an average annual rate of 40 percent over the next five years, or from 450 billion yuan in 2010 to 2.5 trillion yuan in 2015," said Frankie Leung, head of Financial Institutions Practice at BCG.
Statistics from the China Banking Association show there were about 230 million credit cards at the end of 2010.
MasterCard Inc has forecast that China would overtake the United States to become the world's largest credit card market by 2020, with the number of cards issued reaching 800 million to 900 million.
Young affluent consumers, defined as those aged below 35 with current assets of more than 500,000 yuan, have the strongest demand for consumer lending products, said the BCG report.
"They are particularly enamored of credit cards, which have a roughly 80 percent penetration rate.
"Young cardholders now often have more than one card, 2.6 cards on average, to take advantage of different promotional campaigns," said Leung.
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