Opinion     

The South China Sea conundrum and prospects for the China-ASEAN FTZ

China Today, October 13, 2014

• In light of the roadblocks that the U.S. has set up to China-ASEAN cooperation, ASEAN faces three challenges. First, if ASEAN members lack the resolve to advance economic integration and the will to build a new regional security framework, the regional organization risks being substituted or marginalized by U.S.-led regional security and economic schemes. It might then deteriorate from a core political and economic force in Asia-Pacific to a loose platform for dialogues, or even slip into demise. Second, should the ASEAN pivotal agenda be swayed by the South China Sea issue, the disparate stances of its members, arising from their different needs and pursuits, may lead to dissolution of the organization. Third, in the balance of power game, ASEAN will not benefit from any escalation of the South China Sea conflicts, as this would multiply the odds of confrontation between China and the U.S. ASEAN would not relish clashes between the two powerful countries because its members could not withstand the consequences.

  Future Expectations

  There are three factors that would contribute to China and ASEAN circumventing the South China Sea trap.

  First, strengthened economic cooperation between China and ASEAN makes it impossible for either side to substitute their economic interdependence for that with other countries. Over the period 2002 to 2013, bilateral trade soared from US $54.767 billion to US $443.61 billion. China is now ASEAN's largest trade partner, and ASEAN has been China's No.3 trade partner, fourth largest export market, and second largest import source for three successive years. August this year saw the start of negotiations to build an upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone. It took just four years to establish and upgrade the FTZ, so testifying to both sides' resolve to advance their economic cooperation. It is expected that economic cooperation between China and ASEAN will proceed on the tri-tracks of an upgraded FTZ, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the Maritime Silk Road. China has consequently set the goal of increasing bilateral trade to more than US $one trillion by 2020. Economic cooperation is projected to continue providing the primary impetus towards regional peace and stability.

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