Discovering China's new, normal growth

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, November 11, 2014
Adjust font size:

Over the past three months, China has produced tepid macro economic data showing the world's second largest economy slowing down.

It is time to rethink the China's growth story under a new normality, with new thinking and a new framework.

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON

An article in the UK's Daily Telegraph on Sept. 19, gave China's slowdown as No.1 in "10 warning signs of global financial meltdown".

Ma Guangyuan, independent Beijing economist, disagrees, "this worried tone about stalled growth in China is the latest fashion in overseas markets."

The Chinese economy is slowing, no doubt about it. August's macro indicators were the worst since the 2008 global financial crisis, and the data did indeed show a notable slowdown, with industrial growth and fixed-asset investment both hitting multi-year lows. Electricity consumption, property sales and foreign direct investment all came in weaker than expected, but the Chinese leadership, economists and academics are keeping calm and carrying on.

"China's current economic slowdown is a fact and the decline of growth rates is normal; new normal," Ma said. It is inappropriate to compare August's key macro indicators with the previous 30 years', he said.

In the 35 years between 1978 and 2013, annual growth of the Chinese economy averaged close to 10 percent and, between 2003 and 2007, it was over 11.5 percent. Growth decelerated to 7.7 percent in 2012 and 2013 and in the first half of 2014, we are looking at a figure of 7.4 percent.

"With the approach of the Lewis turning point and increased factor cost, rates near 10 percent are no longer sustainable," said central bank official Sheng Songcheng.

The Lewis turning point is the juncture between an abundant labor supply and a shortage. The shrinking working-age population in China is cutting deep into China's traditional labor cost advantage.

"China's potential growth is falling to around 7 percent," Sheng said. Potential growth is the maximum pace that an economy can sustain over the medium to long term without stoking inflation.

Demographics aside, the slowdown can be blamed--or credited, depending on your point of view--on institutional reform and diminishing returns on capital investment, chief China economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch Lu Ting said in a earlier note.

THINK NORMAL, ACT NORMAL

The idea of a new normality was first popularized by the bond fund giant Pacific Investment Management Co. to describe below average growth after the global crisis. The term gained ground in China when in May, President Xi Jinping described the need to adapt to a new normality and remain cool-headed as the brakes went on.

Guan Qingyou of Minsheng Securities has laid out three key features of the new normality - much slower growth; continuing structural reform; no big stimulus. In past months, China has repeatedly expressed a new tolerance for slower growth as a precondition to structural reform.

Facing the new normality, Premier Li Keqiang at Summer Davos in Tianjin last month, focused on structural readjustment and other long-term problems, saying he would not be distracted by minor fluctuations of individual indicators. Instead of economic stimulus and easing monetary policy, Li has vigorously promoted reform and economic readjustment.

Economist Ma Guangyuan perceives a lack of wisdom among overseas observers who try to balance reform against stable growth, while baying for a short-term stimulus.

China is still digesting the 2008 stimulus to counteract the global financial crisis. It left China with no choice but to press ahead with difficult reform and lay a foundation for future growth, Ma said.

"It is time to rethink China, as we get ready for a new round of institutional reform which will reshape our nation for many years to come," Lu Ting said.

Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产无遮挡又黄又爽又色| 色www永久免费视频| 娇小xxxxx性开放| 久久一本岛在免费线观看2020 | 国产精品亚洲а∨天堂2021| AV天堂午夜精品一区| 嫩b人妻精品一区二区三区| 中文字幕久精品免费视频| 波多野结衣av无码久久一区| 动漫美女人物被黄漫小说| 色一情一乱一伦一区二区三区| 国产大片黄在线播放| 麻豆国产精品有码在线观看| 国产精品女在线观看| 91手机看片国产福利精品| 在线播放无码后入内射少妇| www性久久久com| 强奷乱码中文字幕| 中文字幕中韩乱码亚洲大片 | 成年女人黄小视频| 久久久久久久岛国免费播放| 永久在线观看www免费视频| 免费无码成人AV片在线在线播放| 美女扒开腿让男生桶爽网站| 国产精品亚洲一区二区三区 | 亚洲精品福利你懂| 国产美女久久精品香蕉69| 97精品在线播放| 天天爱天天做天天爽| t66y最新地址一地址二地址三 | 男女一边桶一边摸一边脱视频免费 | 亚洲日韩中文字幕无码一区| 热re99久久国产精品| 国产丰满麻豆videossexhd| 乱码卡一卡二卡新区在线| 波多野结衣中文丝袜字幕| 今天免费中文字幕视频| 男女xx00动态图120秒| 你好老叔电影观看免费| 班主任丝袜脚夹茎故事| 国产成人一区二区精品非洲|