二、2017年經濟社會發展的總體要求、主要目標和政策取向 | II. Requirements, Objectives, and Policies for Economic and Social Development in 2017 |
2017年是實施“十三五”規劃的重要一年,是供給側結構性改革的深化之年。中國共產黨第十九次全國代表大會將要召開,具有重大而深遠意義。做好2017年經濟工作至關重要。 | 2017 is an important year in implementing the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) and in carrying out further supply-side structural reform. 2017 will also witness the convocation of the 19th National Congress of the CPC, an event of far-reaching significance. So it is of paramount importance for us to effectively carry out our economic work over the coming year. |
(一)總體要求 | 1. General Requirements |
在以習近平同志為核心的黨中央領導下,高舉中國特色社會主義偉大旗幟,全面貫徹黨的十八大和十八屆三中、四中、五中、六中全會精神,以鄧小平理論、“三個代表”重要思想、科學發展觀為指導,深入貫徹習近平總書記系列重要講話精神和治國理政新理念新思想新戰略,統籌推進“五位一體”總體布局和協調推進“四個全面”戰略布局,堅持穩中求進工作總基調,牢固樹立和貫徹落實新發展理念,適應把握引領經濟發展新常態,堅持以提高發展質量和效益為中心,堅持宏觀政策要穩、產業政策要準、微觀政策要活、改革政策要實、社會政策要托底的政策思路,堅持以推進供給側結構性改革為主線,適度擴大總需求,加強預期引導,深化創新驅動,全面做好穩增長、促改革、調結構、惠民生、防風險各項工作,保持經濟平穩健康發展和社會和諧穩定,以優異成績迎接黨的十九大勝利召開。 | The requirements for 2017 are as follows: -- uphold the leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core -- hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics -- fully implement the guidelines from the 18th National Party Congress and from the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth plenary sessions of the 18th Party Central Committee -- follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development -- put into practice the guiding principles from General Secretary Xi Jinping's major addresses and his new concepts, thoughts, and strategies on the governance of China -- promote coordinated economic, political, cultural, social,and ecological progress and balanced implementation of the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy* -- seek progress while keeping performance stable -- build a strong understanding of and put into practice China's new development philosophy -- adapt to, approach in the right way, and steer the new normal in economic development -- take strengthening the quality and benefits of development as a core priority -- ensure macro policies are stable, industrial policies are targeted, micro policies are flexible, reform policies are practical, and that social policies ensure basic needs are met -- focus on supply-side structural reform -- expand aggregate demand as appropriate -- better guide expectations -- ensure development is increasingly innovation-driven -- work to keep growth stable, promote reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, and guard against risks -- maintain stable and sound economic development as well as social harmony and stability Fulfilling these requirements should ensure that we greet the 19th National Party Congress with outstanding achievements. * To make comprehensive moves to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, deepen reform, advance the law-based governance of China, and strengthen Party self-governance. |
(二)主要預期目標 | 2. Main Objectives |
按照上述總體要求,綜合考慮需要和可能,提出2017年經濟社會發展的主要預期目標: | Keeping the above requirements in mind and fully considering both what is necessary and what is possible, we have set the following objectives for economic and social development in 2017: |
——經濟增速保持在合理區間。國內生產總值預期增長6.5%左右,在實際工作中爭取更好結果。主要考慮:一是符合客觀實際。我國經濟發展已經進入新常態,經濟增速從高速增長轉向中高速增長。2016年我國經濟總量超過74萬億元,今年預期6.5%左右的增量,超過2016年6.7%的增量,同世界主要國家相比也是很高的速度。二是符合全面建成小康社會目標要求。與“十三五”規劃目標相銜接,在2016年已經實現6.7%增長的基礎上,今后4年,只要年均增長6.5%左右,就可以實現2020年國內生產總值比2010年翻一番的目標。三是能夠滿足就業目標需要。保持經濟發展速度、推動經濟發展,根本還是要不斷解決好人民群眾普遍關心的突出問題。四是有利于形成良好社會預期。2017年面臨的國內外環境仍然復雜多變,要引導各方面更加注重堅持以提高發展質量和效益為中心,集中精力推動結構優化升級,積極應對各種不確定因素影響,為深入推進供給側結構性改革創造良好環境。 | -- Economic growth within an appropriate range GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% approximately; however in practice, we will strive for better. In setting this objective, we have taken the following into account: First, the projected GDP growth rate is in keeping with conditions in China. Our country is in a new normal in economic development, having shifted from a high to a medium-high growth rate. In 2016 China's aggregate economic output exceeded 74 trillion yuan; and this year's projected growth rate of around 6.5% will result in a larger increase in economic output than last year's increase resulting from a 6.7% growth rate. Moreover, a growth rate of 6.5% is much higher than most major economies. Second, the projected growth rate is in line with the goal of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. China's economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, so an average growth rate of around 6.5% over the next four years would be sufficient to accomplish the objective set out in the 13th Five-Year Plan to ensure that China's GDP in 2020 is double what it was in 2010. Third, a 6.5% growth rate is needed to achieve the employment objective. All efforts to keep the economy growing at an appropriate rate and to promote economic development are for nothing more than to address the problems which are of most concern to the public. Fourth, this rate of growth is conducive to fostering healthy public expectations. Facing complex and volatile situations at home and abroad in 2017, we need to provide guidance to all sectors of society so as to focus efforts on improving the quality and benefits of development and promoting structural improvement and upgrading, ensure a proactive response to the impact arising from various uncertainties, and create a favorable environment for supply-side structural reform. |
圖表9:國內生產總值和經濟增長率 新華社發 | Figure 9. GDP and Growth Rate |
——就業形勢保持總體穩定。城鎮新增就業1100萬人以上,比2016年預期目標多100萬人,城鎮登記失業率控制在4.5%以內。主要考慮:一是就業壓力較大。預計2017年仍有1500萬左右新成長勞動力進入市場,加上去產能行業職工轉崗需求有所增加,考慮退休等騰退的城鎮就業崗位,需要新增約1100萬人的城鎮就業。二是就業容量不斷擴大。隨著產業結構調整,特別是創新創業和服務業發展,就業彈性系數明顯提高,6.5%左右的經濟增長,可以實現就業目標,實際完成數量還可以力爭更多一些。三是實現城鄉居民收入增長與經濟增長基本同步的需要。體現了黨和政府以人民為中心的發展思想和民生為先、就業為本的執政理念,有利于穩定預期和增強發展信心。 | -- Overall stable employment Over 11 million new urban jobs will be created, 1 million more than the projection for 2016, and the registered urban unemployment rate should stay within 4.5%. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account: First, employment pressure is mounting. About 15 million new workers will enter the job market in 2017, and there will also be a slightly larger number of laid-off workers that need to be reemployed in other industries due to the scaling-down of overcapacity; on the other hand, we will see jobs opening up in urban areas as a result of retirements. Taking these factors into consideration, we need to create around 11 million new urban jobs this year. Second, employment capacity continues to increase. Due to adjustments in the structure of industry, particularly in terms of entrepreneurship and innovation and the development of the service sector, China's employment elasticity has risen considerably. A growth rate of around 6.5% should ensure that we fulfill our employment target and will allow us to work toward exceeding it. Third, we need to ensure increases in personal income are basically in step with economic growth. These objectives are a reflection of the Party and government's vision of people-centered development as well as the governance principle that the people's wellbeing comes first and ensuring employment is a top priority. They are also conducive to ensuring stable public expectations and strengthening people's confidence in development. |
——價格總水平基本穩定。居民消費價格漲幅預期目標為3%左右。主要考慮:一是2017年翹尾因素約為0.6%,與去年基本持平。二是2016年9月以來,工業生產者出廠價格指數(PPI)由負轉正,工業領域通縮壓力有所緩解,但PPI向下游產業和終端消費傳導,以及進口商品價格傳導和國際大宗商品價格上升走勢的影響,將會形成新的漲價因素。三是為價格改革預留出空間。 | -- Overall stable prices The CPI is projected to increase by around 3%. In setting this objective, we have taken the following into account: First, the carryover effect from the CPI increase in 2016 will be 0.6%, which is basically the same as that of the year before. Second, the producer price index (PPI) shifted from negative to positive territory in September 2016 and has remained there ever since, and the deflationary pressure on manufacturing has eased to some extent. However, as the effects of the PPI increase are transmitted to downstream industries and toward end consumption, and as the prices of imported goods and international commodity prices rise, new factors will emerge to push up prices. Third, such a CPI increase leaves us with room to undertake price reform. |
——國際收支保持基本平衡。繼續促進貨物貿易回穩向好,服務貿易較快增長,利用外資規模保持穩定,對外投資健康發展。主要考慮:一是世界經濟和貿易增長低迷的狀況短期內難以改變,但隨著促進外貿穩增長調結構政策成效進一步顯現,貨物進出口有望繼續回穩向好。二是電信、計算機和信息等高附加值服務出口繼續較快增長,服務貿易結構將更加優化。三是大力營造公平、透明、可預期的法治化市場營商環境,利用外資將保持穩定,質量將進一步提高。四是對外投資活躍,為避免非理性投資引發經營、債務等風險,應穩妥有序推進對外投資。 | -- A basic balance in international payments We will continue to promote a steady rise in the trade of goods, rapid growth in the trade of services, stability in the use of foreign investment, and the healthy development of outbound investment. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account: First, a turnaround in global economic and trade growth is unlikely in the short term. However, as the policy for promoting steady growth and structural adjustment in foreign trade continues to have an effect, the volume of trade in goods is expected to pick up again. Second, as the export of high-value-added services such as telecommunications, computers, and information continues to increase rapidly, the structure of trade in services will improve. Third, significant efforts will be made to create a fair, transparent, and predictable law-based market environment so as to ensure foreign investment remains stable and improves in quality. Fourth, outbound investment will be robust. In order to avoid irrational investment which may give rise to operational or debt risks, growth in this area should be promoted in an orderly and prudent manner. |
——發展的質量和效益進一步提高。消費對經濟增長的貢獻率提高。農業基礎進一步加強,去產能工作扎實推進,戰略性新興產業加快發展,服務業增加值占國內生產總值的比重繼續提高。研究與試驗發展經費投入強度和科技進步貢獻率進一步提高。單位國內生產總值能耗下降3.4%以上、二氧化碳排放下降4.0%,主要污染物排放量繼續下降,大氣、水環境質量進一步改善。主要考慮:貫徹創新、協調、綠色、開放、共享的發展理念,促進產業轉型升級、提質增效,全面提高產品和服務質量,加強節能環保和生態建設,符合推進供給側結構性改革的要求,有利于創造新的增長點,提高經濟增長潛力,推動經濟保持中高速增長、邁向中高端水平。 | -- Improved quality and benefits in development The contribution of consumption to economic growth will increase. The foundation of agriculture will be further strengthened; solid progress will be made in cutting overcapacity; the development of emerging strategic industries will be accelerated; and increases in the contribution of the value-added of the service sector to GDP will be sustained. More will be spent on research and development and there will be an increase in the contribution of scientific and technological progress to economic growth. Energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by at least 3.4%, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be cut by 4.0%, reductions in the emissions of major pollutants will continue, and air and water quality will be further improved. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account: We need to put into practice the philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development; see that industries are transformed and upgraded, that their quality and performance improves, and that the quality of all products and services increases; and ensure that energy conservation, environmental protection, and ecological improvement efforts are strengthened. These objectives are in line with the efforts to advance supply-side structural reform, and can help to create new growth areas, increase the potential for economic growth, and ensure the economy maintains a medium-high growth rate and moves toward the medium-high end. |
圖表10:三次產業占國內生產總值比重 新華社發 | Figure 10. Contribution to GDP by the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary Industries |
——民生福祉進一步改善。農村貧困人口再減少1000萬人以上,完成340萬人易地扶貧搬遷建設任務。戶籍人口城鎮化率提高1個百分點以上,農業轉移人口和其他常住人口在城鎮落戶1300萬人以上。教育衛生文化等基本公共服務均等化水平進一步提高,義務教育鞏固率和高中階段教育毛入學率穩步提高。社會保障制度進一步完善,覆蓋面繼續擴大,保障水平適度提升。城鄉居民基本醫保人均財政補助標準提高到450元,大病保險籌資水平進一步提高。人口自然增長率7.5‰左右。主要考慮:全面落實以人民為中心的發展思想,在學有所教、勞有所得、病有所醫、老有所養、住有所居上持續取得新進展。 | -- Improvements in living standards The number of people living in poverty in rural areas will be reduced by at least 10 million, and 3.4 million people will be relocated from inhospitable areas so as to help them shake off poverty. The percentage of registered urban residents will increase by more than 1 percentage point. Urban residency will be granted to an additional 13 million people with rural household registration living in urban areas and other permanent urban residents. Access to basic public services such as education, health, and culture will become more equitable. The retention rate of compulsory education and the gross enrollment ratio for senior secondary education will continue to rise. The social security system will be further improved with more beneficiaries receiving coverage and an appropriate increase in benefits. Per capita government subsidies for basic medical insurance for rural and non-working urban residents will increase to 450 yuan, while the level of financing for the major disease insurance scheme will also be raised. The natural population growth rate will be about 7.5 thousandths. In setting these objectives, we have taken the following into account: We must fully implement our vision of people-centered development and work for further progress in ensuring that the Chinese people enjoy the rights to education, employment, medical treatment, old-age care, and housing. |
圖表11:城鎮居民、農村居民收入增長及城鄉居民收入比 新華社發 | Figure 11. Urban and Rural Personal Income: Increases and Comparisons |
(三)宏觀經濟政策取向 | 3. Macroeconomic policies |
中央經濟工作會議強調,穩中求進工作總基調是治國理政的重要原則,也是做好經濟工作的方法論。2017年貫徹好這個總基調具有特別重要的意義。穩是主基調,穩是大局,在穩的前提下要在關鍵領域有所進取,在把握好度的前提下奮發有為。實現2017年經濟社會發展目標,要堅持穩中求進工作總基調,保持宏觀經濟政策連續性和穩定性,繼續實施積極的財政政策和穩健的貨幣政策。財政政策要更加積極有效,今年赤字率擬按3%安排,財政赤字2.38萬億元,比去年增加2000億元。貨幣政策要保持穩健中性,今年廣義貨幣M2和社會融資規模余額預期增長均為12%左右。 | At the recent Central Economic Work Conference, it was noted that seeking progress while keeping performance stable was not only an important governance principle but also an effective method for carrying out economic work. It is particularly important to uphold this principle in 2017. Stability is of primary and overarching significance: under the condition of keeping performance stable, we will work for progress in key sectors, and under the condition of maintaining a well-balanced pace of work, we will strive to deliver better results. To attain the objectives for economic and social development in 2017, we must seek progress while keeping performance stable, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We must ensure that fiscal policy is more proactive and effective; a debt-GDP ratio of 3% is projected for this year and the government deficit will be 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan over last year. We must also ensure that prudency and neutrality is maintained in monetary policy; both the M2 money supply and aggregate financing in the economy are expected to grow by around 12% in 2017. |
同時,加強各方面政策協調配合,統籌協調運用好中國特色宏觀調控政策,更好發揮財政、貨幣、改革、產業、創新、就業、區域、投資、消費、貿易、價格、土地、環保等政策的協同組合效應,提高政策的精準性和有效性。 | At the same time, we will strengthen coordination and support between policies, make effective use of macroeconomic policies with Chinese characteristics, and see that fiscal, monetary, reform, industrial, innovation, employment, regional, investment, consumption, trade, pricing, land, and environmental protection policies work together more effectively and that their precision and efficacy increase. |
以財政、貨幣政策為支撐,投資、消費、貿易等政策為配合,供給側結構性改革政策發力,著力化解供需結構性矛盾。大力實施減稅降費政策,充分發揮中央財政資金“四兩撥千斤”的引導帶動作用,持續推進“放管服”改革、國企改革、價格改革,強化精準產業政策指導,著力紓緩實體經濟困難。加大財政金融政策支持,實施差別化區域政策,注重就業和社會保障政策兜底,著力促進區域協調協同發展。深入推進農業供給側結構性改革,完善農業補貼、投資、信貸、保險、用地等政策,支持農業技術創新,著力解決三農領域問題。通過穩健的貨幣政策、精準的產業政策和土地政策,深化金融體制改革,強化市場監管,防范和化解財政金融風險,著力防控資金脫實向虛和房地產波動風險。加大政策解讀和信息發布力度,進一步完善產權保護制度,著力引導形成良好社會預期。具體工作中,注重聚焦“6個關鍵領域”著力攻堅,帶動全局發展。 | -- Addressing structural conflicts between supply and demand With fiscal and monetary policies as main pillars, and with the support of investment, consumption, and trade policies, we will work to exert the role of supply-side structural reform policy. -- Alleviating the difficulties in the real economy We will take strong measures to cut taxes and fees, fully utilize central government investment to guide and attract investment from private sources; continue to promote reforms on SOEs, on pricing, and on streamlining administration, delegating more powers, improving regulation, and providing better services; and provide more targeted policy guidance. -- Promoting coordinated and integrated development between regions We will increase fiscal and financial policy support, implement differentiated regional policies, and ensure that employment and social security policies meet basic needs. -- Solving problems related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers We will fully carry out supply-side structural reform in agriculture, improve agriculture-related subsidy, investment, credit, insurance, and land-use policies, and support technological innovation in agriculture. -- Preventing investment from being diverted out of the real economy and controlling real estate fluctuations By utilizing prudent monetary policy and targeted industrial and land policies, we will deepen financial reforms, strengthen market oversight, and prevent and defuse fiscal and financial risks. -- Providing guidance to ensure positive public expectations We will do more to explain government policies and to release information to the public and will further improve the property rights protection system. In relation to specific work, we will focus on the following six areas so as to advance overall development. |
一是聚焦制度創新激發市場活力。深化重要領域和關鍵環節改革,強化體制機制創新,增加制度供給,有針對性解決制約經濟社會發展的突出矛盾和問題,提高改革整體效能,力求取得新的突破。 | First, carrying on institutional innovation to revitalize the market We will deepen reform in major areas and key sectors, step up innovation in systems and mechanisms, increase institutional supply, take targeted steps to solve prominent conflicts and problems holding back economic and social development, improve the overall effectiveness of reform, and strive for further breakthroughs. |
二是聚焦振興實體經濟提升供給水平。深入推進“三去一降一補”,加快產業政策創新轉型,優化生產力布局,努力實現供給體系由中低端產品為主向適應需求變化的中高端產品為主轉變。 | Second, revitalizing the real economy to provide better products We will intensify efforts to cut overcapacity, reduce excess inventory, deleverage, lower costs, and strengthen areas of weakness; move faster to create new industrial policies and upgrade old ones, and improve the distribution of productive forces, in a bid to bring about a shift from a supply of predominantly medium-low end products to mainly supplying medium-high end ones that conform to changes in demand. |
三是聚焦創新驅動培育壯大新動能。全面實施創新驅動發展戰略,完善創新支持政策體系,著力增加創新資源供給,深入推進大眾創業萬眾創新,促進發展動能接續轉換,提高全要素生產率。 | Third, advancing innovation-driven development to foster and strengthen new driving forces We will fully implement the innovation-driven development strategy, improve policies in support of innovation, increase the supply of innovative resources, provide greater encouragement for business startups and innovations by the general public, promote the replacement of old drivers of development with new ones, and ensure total-factor productivity increases. |
四是聚焦擴大有效需求穩定宏觀環境。順應需求升級大趨勢,努力增加高品質產品和服務供給,提高政府投資效率,激發民間投資、社會資本活力,促進供給結構和需求結構有效匹配、消費升級和有效投資良性互動,實現更高質量、更有效率、更加公平、更可持續的發展。 | Fourth, increasing effective demand to keep the macro environment stable As the upgrade in demand continues, we will work to increase the supply of quality goods and services and the efficiency of government investment, inject vigor into private investment and private capital, and work to create a balance between supply and demand and a healthy interaction between upgraded consumption and effective investment, so as to ensure development becomes better in quality, more efficient, more equitable, and more sustainable. |
五是聚焦重點領域重點區域有效防范化解風險。增強憂患意識,堅持底線思維,以防范金融風險、企業杠桿率過高、房地產市場泡沫積累、地方政府性債務及基層財政困難等風險為重點,創新完善風險處置方式,堅決守住底線,維護社會大局穩定。 | Fifth, effectively preventing and defusing risks in key sectors and regions We will become more aware of potential dangers and keep in mind worst-case scenarios. With a focus on preventing financial risks, excessive corporate leverage, an accumulation of property bubbles, inflated local government debt, and financial difficulties among county and township governments as well as other risks, we will create new and better ways of dealing with risk and never allow the line to be crossed on these risks so as to safeguard social stability. |
六是聚焦民生改善促進社會和諧。落實以人民為中心的發展思想,著力化解結構性就業矛盾,推進精準扶貧精準脫貧,提高基本公共服務水平,加快發展教育、養老、衛生計生、文化、體育等社會事業,采取有力有效措施,改善生態環境,提升人民群眾獲得感和幸福度。 | Sixth, improving people's lives to promote social harmony Guided by the vision of people-centered development, we will work to solve the structural problems related to employment, use targeted measures to tackle poverty, provide better basic public services, speed up the development of social programs such as education, elderly care, health and family planning, culture, and sports, and take stronger, more effective measures to improve the environment so as to ensure our people have a greater sense of benefit and a higher level of happiness. |