Cases of breast cancer are expected to climb dramatically in China in the years ahead, researchers say, unless women avoid weight gain and limit their alcohol intake - two leading risk factors for the disease.

Combining the results of a statistical study and data on lifestyle changes in Chinese women, researchers predicted there would be more than 100 breast cancer cases per 100,000 women aged 55 to 69 by 2021, compared with the rate of 10 to 60 cases per 100,000 women now.

The study was published this week in The Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

"The current incidence of breast cancer in China is low compared with the rate in Western countries. But as more Chinese women adopt a Western lifestyle, the rate is expected to climb," the researchers said in a statement.

One of the researchers, Eleni Linos of Stanford University Hospital in the United States, said Chinese women needed to avoid some of the well-established risk factors tied to breast cancer.

"There are several things women can do to reduce their risk of breast cancer. Limiting alcohol use and avoiding weight gain can decrease a woman's risk of breast cancer," Linos wrote.

"Avoiding hormone replacement therapy may relate to lower breast cancer risk in China, as in other countries. Having children early, rather than later on in life, may play a role."

She said breast cancer screening in combination with other cancer prevention initiatives were extremely important.

"Our estimates show that such efforts can prevent hundreds of thousands of cases of breast cancer in China over the coming years," Linos said.

Rates of breast cancer in China are currently as low as 12.8 in every 100,000 women, but experts believe it is only a matter of time before the world's most populous country sees an explosion in the number of cases.

Already, breast cancer is the most common cancer among Chinese women in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

"Modest reductions in hormone and alcohol use, and weight maintenance are predicted to prevent approximately 10 percent of these cases," the report said.

(Shanghai Daily?September 26, 2008)